I have to admit I’ve been a bit surprised with the response to my Labour MP calculator – it seems to be a hit, even though at the moment it’s only working with a modified version of the current caucus rankings.
I’ve now plugged the National Party’s caucus rankings and selected candidates into the back end, and have the first version of my National MP calculator working…
Calculate potential National MPs
There a bug with the gender calculations for the Nats, so I’ve removed it for the time being. They don’t have a constitutional gender requirement so it will create far fewer headaches for them, but I’ll include it as soon as I can get it working as a point of comparison.
Also, the Nats haven’t finished many of their selections, and have been very sporadic about issuing releases when candidates are selected. If you know of any National candidates that have been endorsed but are missing from my list, please let me know.
Thanks to everyone who provided feedback on the first version of the Labour MP calculator I released on the weekend – I’m glad that so many people found it interesting.
I’ve re-engineered it to use a different framework, and it is now capable of producing lists for both Labour and National and showing exactly who would be elected.
Take a look at version two here.
At the moment the List it is simulating is the current Labour caucus rankings – but as soon as the actual list is released I’ll get that up, and I’ll continue to add electorate candidates as they’re selected.
Likewise, I’m working on a version for National which will have their list as soon as it’s released.
One thing jumped out at me while putting this together – just how hard it will be for the Labour Party to meet it’s constitutionally mandated gender balance. At this stage, with so many safe electorates going to men, virtually all of the winnable list slots will have to go to women. There are still two “marginal” seats still to be selected, New Lynn and Auckland Central, which will almost certainly have to go to women if the party is to meet it’s new 50/50 rule.
As always, if you’ve got any feedback please pass it along either via a comment here or via email (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Now that Labour has concluded most of it’s selections for winnable seats at the 2017 election (New Lynn, Auckland Central, and Ohariu are the outstanding ones), we can start looking at what the composition of caucus will be like following the election.
I’ve been brushing up on my coding skills and made a calculator that lets you determine the makeup of caucus based on various party vote percentages and electorate results.
View the calculator here
Having had a play around with the numbers, one thing really stands out to me. If you assume that the electorate seats and party vote share are reasonably static, Labour is well behind it’s rule of a 50/50 gender balance after the 2017 election. It’s going to make the list selection process very interesting.
Please let me know if you’ve got any ideas for changes, or notice something that needs correcting.