Little movement in the polls

I’ve updated my election forecast with the release of the only NZ opinion poll so far in May. In short, there has been very little movement. Since my forecast was last updated, National and the Greens have both lost a seat while Labour and NZ First have both gained one. That doesn’t really change the fact that either Bill English or Andrew Little would need to do some form of deal with Winston Peters to form the next Government. Fun times.

Also, this is the first time I’ve updated my model since the Labour Party released their party list for 2017 – the first party to do so. Based on retaining all their current electorate seats and with a total of 35 MPs, Willie Jackson would be an MP and Jo Luxton and Liz Craig would narrowly miss out. They would have 16 female MPs for a 45% gender balance, less than the party constitution requires, and a whopping 11 Māori MPs – at 31% representation Māori represenation would be twice as strong as in the NZ population. Here’s what it would look like:

List Ranking Candidate Electorate
1 Andrew Little List MP
2 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatu
5 Megan Woods Wigram
6 Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
7 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston
8 David Clark Dunedin North
9 David Parker List MP
10 Stuart Nash Napier
11 Priyanca Radhakrishnan List MP
12 Raymond Huo List MP
13 Iain Lees-Galloway Palmerston North
14 Jan Tanetti List MP
15 Su’a William Sio Mangere
16 Willow-Jean Prime List MP
17 Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman
18 Jenny Salesa Manukau East
19 Kris Faafoi Mana
20 Kiri Allan List MP
21 Willie Jackson List MP
22 Clare Curran Dunedin South
23 Ruth Dyson Port Hills
24 Poto Williams Christchurch East
25 Louisa Wall Manurewa
26 Michael Wood Mt Roskill
27 Ginny Andersen Hutt South
29 Deborah Russell New Lynn
33 Paul Eagle Rongotai
N/A Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau
N/A Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato
N/A Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga
N/A Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauauru
N/A Peeni Henare Tamaki Makaurau
N/A Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rawhiti



Labour caucus calculator updated

After a tantrum from a candidate, Labour have finally released their 2017 Party List.

I’ve updated my Labour caucus calculator, see the link at the top of this page to check out who would be in and out. Note that the default result setting is what Labour got at the last election, you might want to adjust that to be either my current forecast (34 MPs) or whatever poll you choose to believe.

For what it’s worth, I think it’s a very good list. Will have more thoughts in the days to come.