Electorate level polls in New Zealand are problematic.
They almost always use tiny samples, and pollsters have significant problems knowing the people they’re calling are actually enrolled in the seat they’re asking about.
And taking all that into account, it’s never done regularly so you can’t even look for a simple trend.
So, for those reasons, predicting electorate level results is difficult at best, and it’s why I haven’t built any change in electorates into my Election Forecast.
However, I promised a few people I’d write a list of which seats I think will change hands next Saturday. Here they are:
Auckland Central – Labour gain from National
Ōhāriu – Labour gain from United Future
Maungakiekie – Labour gain from National
Christchurch Central – Labour gain from National
Waimakariri – Labour gain from National
Whanganui – Labour gain from National
Waiariki – Labour gain from Māori Party
So there you have it, seven seats I think Labour will pick up on the day. And I no longer think any of Labour’s seats (eg Hutt South, Te Tai Hauauru, Napier) are at risk.
If I’d written this list two months ago it would have been very different!