My electorate predictions

Electorate level polls in New Zealand are problematic.

They almost always use tiny samples, and pollsters have significant problems knowing the people they’re calling are actually enrolled in the seat they’re asking about.

And taking all that into account, it’s never done regularly so you can’t even look for a simple trend.

So, for those reasons, predicting electorate level results is difficult at best, and it’s why I haven’t built any change in electorates into my Election Forecast.

However, I promised a few people I’d write a list of which seats I think will change hands next Saturday. Here they are:

Auckland Central – Labour gain from National

Ōhāriu – Labour gain from United Future

Maungakiekie – Labour gain from National

Christchurch Central – Labour gain from National

Waimakariri – Labour gain from National

Whanganui – Labour gain from National

Waiariki – Labour gain from Māori Party


So there you have it, seven seats I think Labour will pick up on the day. And I no longer think any of Labour’s seats (eg Hutt South, Te Tai Hauauru, Napier) are at risk.

If I’d written this list two months ago it would have been very different!

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