Final Election Forecast update

I’ve updated my Election Forecast with the results of the final Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls. Either National or Labour could form government, but they would both need the help of NZ First, Labour would also need to add the Māori Party to the mix.

My forecast has the Greens creeping closer to, but still below, the 5% threshold. I feel that my weighting against them has been too aggressive, and I would be surprised if they don’t make it back to Parliament.

While National have gained ground in the last two weeks, it will still be a very, very close result. Labour will make massive gains, and with a good ground game on Saturday could still take the prize.

It’s certainly been the most interesting election I remember in years.

My genuine thanks go out to all the candidates, staff and especially volunteers. No matter what party you stand for, the work you’ve done over many months ensures that New Zealand has a healthy democracy. Get some sleep on Sunday!

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